2019 BUST PICKS

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Now is the time we break out a few of our BUST picks! However, we need to cover just what we are classifying as a bust. The main goal of the draft is to get as much value packed into your roster as you can. Because of this, we will let the BUST classification apply to guys with high average draft position, who won’t return the value had you taken someone else in that same spot.  So, lets get it going, here are a few BUST picks for you!

Damien Williams, RB KC

Some of you read the name and have already jumped ship but hear me out! In our bold prediction article, I mentioned how Williams never had to compete for the job as there just wasn’t anyone left. I also believe that rookie Darwin Thompson will be the best pass catching back on the team. If Williams gets banged up in any way or just simply isn’t performing, it will open the door for Thompson or Hyde to showcase how they could be a better fit for the offense. Do I think Damien Williams will put up points if he can hang onto the job? Of course, but there’s more VALUE to be had if you go another direction.  Williams wasn’t anything special when he was in Miami but came on strong for KC after Hunt was let go.  You know who else finished the year on fire? Derrick Henry, and his current ADP sits two rounds after Williams’. Williams is currently being drafted at the beginning of the second round, going ahead of guys like Nick Chubb, Devonta Freeman, Dalvin Cook, and Marlon Mack.  I would much rather take my chances getting a stud WR and picking up any of those mentioned backs after and feel way better about my lineup. For me there is too much risk with Williams and I’d much rather let someone else take that headache on.

Sony Michel, RB NE

Now our host of the show will not agree with this take because he is high on Michel this year. I believe in the talent, but I don’t believe in the health. I think the Patriots also have some questions as to the status of Michel’s health moving forward. They went out and did what the Patriots never do, and that is move up to take RB Damien Harris in the 3rd round.  Harris is a talented back who out produced fellow Alabama back, Josh Jacobs who was taken in the first round by the Raiders.  Add in James White still being around along with Rex Burkhead and you have another Patriot backfield mess. I also dislike the hell out of his current ADP.  Damien Harris sits with an ADP in the 12th round, while Michel is going before James White in the 4th.  The value to be had here is very little and I would much rather take RBs going after Michel like David Montgomery, Mark Ingram, or James White and scoop up Harris in the 12th round! Minimize the risk and add that value!

Mike Williams, WR LAC

If you were listening to some of our first shows last season, you would have heard us all talk up Mike Williams.  We said back then that someone had to pick up the slack for Hunter Henry being out regarding red zone targets. We called it back then that we felt Williams was going to be the guy to do it, and he did catching 10 touchdowns. Well It’s a new season and Henry is healthy and wants his red zone targets back! Williams wasn’t a target and yardage monster last year and needed the touchdowns to help him finish where he did. I don’t see him having a repeat season and would much rather take someone else in the 5th round with higher upside.  Robby Anderson, Will Fuller, Christian Kirk are all WRs going in the 6th, 7th, and 8th rounds! Give me one of those guys later and let me use that 5th round pick for some fantasy goodness!

2019 Breakout Players to Target Late

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“I feel like I’m the best, but you’re not going to get me to say that.” – Jerry Rice

The late rounds of your fantasy draft are where good teams are made! Sure, there can be first and second round busts, but the odds are those picks typically perform for you. Unless you are like our buddy Scott who once picked Davante Parker in the 2nd round! If you can make the right picks late and catch you some lightning in a bottle, your team will be one to contend with come playoff time. Here are some mid to late round guys we expect to have a breakout fantasy season.

Rashaad Penny - Seahawks, ADP: 7th round

Yes, we know what you are thinking! Penny was a giant let down last year in his rookie season, but he is still a very talented back drafted in the first round.  The knock on him last season was that he was an out of shape rookie who struggled with pass protection. That ultimately lead to Chris Carson winning the job and holding onto it all season. However, the biggest tell sign here is what Seattle didn’t do and that was go out and get another RB.  In fact, Mike Davis is no longer on the team and as it sits right now, Chris Carson is banged up. The ultimate fantasy trickster, Mr. Pete Carroll reported that Carson had “a little work done” and he expects him to return to the field in a few weeks. With Carson recovering from surgery, Penny has to opportunity to be the number one back.  Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has already reported that Penny looks slimmer and in better shape during mini-camp. Seattle wants to run the ball more than they pass and they proved this last year. The loss of Doug Baldwin may have them leaning even more on the run game if that’s even possible.  Currently, Penny is being drafted around the 7th round with guys like Matt Breida, LeSean McCoy, and Dion Lewis.  Potentially you could be drafting a number 1 running back that late! Wait on him and let the points flow to your team!

Christian Kirk    - Cardinals, ADP: 8th round

In his rookie season, Kirk managed 43 receptions for 590 yards and 3 touchdowns.  The stat line isn’t anything to write home about, but if we are high on Kyler Murray (read the last article) then we must be high on Kirk. New head coach, Kliff Kingsbury has already spoke highly of Kirk during mini-camp. The outlook for Kirk in the new offense is tremendous with the added amount of plays the offense is projected to run compared to last year.  With an average draft position sitting in the 8th round, Kirk could add some great value to your roster!

DeMarcus Robinson   - Chiefs, ADP: 14th round or later

Why isn’t anyone talking about this guy? Tyrek Hill is potentially going to be suspended by the NFL. Chris Conley is gone via free agency. Robinson ends the offseason program as the club's second-most experienced receiver behind Sammy always hurt Watkins. Last season he hauled in 22 catches for 288 yards and four touchdowns.  Those numbers won’t get anyone excited, but sometimes opportunity and experience trump talent.  The hype is buzzing for rookie Mecole Hardman, who was drafted in the 2nd round by KC, but Hardman’s current ADP is sitting in the 7/8 rounds. I would much rather take a more established WR like Will Fuller or Jarvis Landry at that spot and pick up Robinson after the 14th! Just remember that majority of the time rookie WRs take some time to show up for fantasy owners. Look for Robinson late and thank me later!

 

Bold takes from the BOLD NORTH

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It’s already June, and before you know it your 4th of July barbecue will be coming to an end.  The days will start to get shorter and we will soon be getting reports of who is holding out of training camp😊 When it’s this early can we really predict what any NFL team will do? The odds are low, but can we make outlandish predictions from the Bold North that could happen? Absolutely!!! Let the BOLDNESS begin!!

Here are a few hot takes we have put together for your entertainment and reading pleasure!!!

1.       Kyler Murray will have a better fantasy season than Baker Mayfield….Boom! we didn’t just dip our feet in the bold water, we did a cannon ball into it for you! But this is no Polar Plunge here. Sure the odds are that Mayfield will be a solid QB and have a better season than Murray, but we believe in Murray’s talent! He’s a heck of a play maker and a freak athlete, in a great situation to be the starter from day 1. I don’t think that the Cardinals will be very good when it comes to win totals this season, but Cleveland on the other hand has a real shot at winning their division. What are bad teams with decent offensive players chasing points good for? That’s right, FANTASY FOOTBALL! Last season Baker finished the year as the QB 16, keep in mind this was only for 14 games played. It’s not over the top bold to think that Kyler Murray playing on a team chasing points will be a better fantasy asset than Baker who might be playing in closer games with a better defense.

2.       Darwin Thompson is the starting running back for the Chiefs by week 6….Better start sandbagging because the BOLD river is about to flood your fantasy town.  What covers flooding? Flood insurance! Hopefully if you draft Damien Williams you are able to get you some Darwin insurance! The Chiefs recently came out and declared to everyone in the valley that Damien Williams is their starting running back. What? Does Pat Shurmur have to come out to everyone and let them know that Saquon Barkley is the Giants’ starter? Nope! Damien Williams was great last season for fantasy owners that scooped him up off the wire, but that’s where he belongs is on the wire. Williams has never been the guy long-term. In 4 seasons with Miami he totaled just 133 carries for 477 yards and 3 tds. Carlos Hyde was signed by the team as well in the off-season, so its safe to say he will also be stealing touches. Last season Williams became the guy by default, as there was nobody left to run the rock for KC. It’s safe to say that his mediocre talent won’t stand the test against Thompson who is a younger better version of Williams. At Utah State in 2018, Thompson averaged 6.8 yards a carry and ran for 1044 yards. He scored 14 rushing touchdowns and added 23 receptions for 351 yards and 2 more scores. The guy is a beast, youtube his highlight tape and sit back and enjoy! Thompson is the perfect fit for the Chiefs offense! Unfortunately, we won’t see him right away baring injury to Williams. Do yourself a favor and go get this lottery ticket on draft day!

3.       James Washington will be the second best WR for the Steelers…. I don’t think this is that bold but it’s something that needs to be said.  Washington was on our sleeper list last season, but with Brown still in the picture, it was hard for the rookie to get it going. This season there is no Brown and he has the support from Big Ben who can’t stop talking about him. Week 17 last season, the Steelers were missing Brown and Washington was the WR who led his team in receiving. It’s something to monitor as he will have some great value if the hype train runs quiet in Pitt. They did bring in Donte Moncrief who has also impressed in mini-camp but the Steelers spent a second round pick on Washington last year and they will be looking to get this kid to pay his dues! Look for him late and be smarter than your friends!  

Look for more Bold takes coming soon!!

Against the odds plays for week 14

“You may be the first person in history to get a fantasy football concussion”

The time has finally come! Week 14, the first week of fantasy football playoffs! Everyone is rushing to their favorite rankings website to help set their lineups. Men and women everywhere are spending less time Christmas shopping and more time listening to their favorite podcast (hopefully @WATOffb). One thing I could never understand is why podcasts talk about a player they think is going to have a good game, but then totally contradict what they say based on the rankings they produce.  What one needs to understand is that the rankings are merely an expectation and you shouldn’t make your decisions only on where a guy is ranked. Consider everything that is going on with said player to include, matchup, opportunity, potential injuries, and home/away splits to exploit. I know that is a lot to consider sometimes and, most don’t have the time to do that kind of research in December with the holidays fast approaching. Well have no fear because WATO is here for YOU! We broke down a few players who we feel will perform better than what the odds and rankings are saying for your team!

QB

Baker Mayfield: Yahoo has this Dangerous man ranked around the likes of Ryan Tannehill and Case Keenum?? I’m here to tell you that a QB who has thrown over 40 times each game in his last 5 games, will be a top 12 QB this week against a Carolina Defense who have forgot how to cover people.

RB

LaGarrette Blount: Everyone is rushing to pick up the likes of Jaylen Samuels and Jeff Wilson from the movie Office Space….Well give me Blount who has 35 carries over his last two games. No Kerryon Johnson and going up against Arizona who has given up a league leading 17 TDs to Running backs.

Justin Jackson: Plays Cincinnati this week. Chargers coaching staff have said they want to let Gordon rest and don’t want to overwork Ekeler. Jackson is a top 20 Rb this week.

Bold North toss up….Stevan Ridley: It’s no secret that the Steelers like to use one back on offense. This week Tomlin came out and said they will be using a committee approach. Jaylen Samuels will start but he has averaged only 2.58 yards a carry this year. When the Steelers need to rush the ball, they may be relying more on Ridley than Samuels. This is not a sure-fire pick and I wouldn’t start Ridley going into week one of the playoffs, but if you have a spot he may be the back to own if Samuels can’t get it done.

WR

Larry Fitzgerald: This future HOFer isn’t getting much love this week in the rankings and I don’t know why. Christian Kirk goes down on IR and vacates 68 targets on the year. Fitz gets to play at home vs Detroit who has given up 7 TDs to opposing wrs over last 5 games. I look for Fitz to have a good game this week and find the end zone!

Anthony Miller: It sounds like he will be getting Mitchell back this week! Miller has only averaged three targets in Trubisky’s absence. I like Miller to have a bounce back game against a Rams defense who has allowed 26 passing scores this season.

Bold North toss upDaeSean Hamilton….Emmanuel Sanders is out for the season and everyone is rushing to pick up Courtland Sutton. However, Denver beat reporter Zac Stevens expects Hamilton to take over Sanders’ role in terms of playing in the slot. When Hamiliton’s inside, Tim Patrick will be outside Sutton in 3 wr sets. Keenum loves targeting slot wrs and Hamilton could provide great value to teams down the stretch. He’s not a start, but a pickup and monitor.

I’m not going to offer up TE’s to stream because it’s a nightmare. Why is everyone on the band wagon of eliminating kickers from fantasy? The TE position is the hardest position to predict when it comes to streaming and it’s much harder to get points out of compared to kickers. You can literally pick up almost any kicker and they will give you points each week, but the TE spot is a complete gamble and nobody knows what is going to happen. Kickers stay, TE’s be gone! End of rant!

What are the odds you win this week? Hopefully after reading this pretty good! Good luck this week!

Follow us on Twitter and on Instagram @WATOffb. We are also on Facebook as well!

Week 13 Waiver Wire

“Here’s a guy, here’s a guy who when he puts his contacts in, he can see better”

-John Madden

For most leagues week 13 is the final week before the playoffs start. Are you in the hunt? Have you clinched a playoff spot? Are you doomed to play in the loser’s bracket, but don’t wanna end up in women’s clothing at your next draft? Well you have come to the right place, because there is still hope for you regardless of how your season has gone thus far! We saw some key injuries and guys being placed on IR this week! Marvin Jones, Andy Dalton, and Jack Doyle all moved to IR, and Melvin Gordon is going to miss time with an MCL Sprain. Here’s what we have for moves you should consider!

Shallow leagues: (guys owned in most leagues but may be out there if you have a smaller league or less roster spots)

Austin Eckler, RB Chargers: Gordon injury opens up Eckler to be a direct handcuff and he should be owned in all leagues!

Josh Adams, RB Eagles: The Eagles said they wanted to get Adams more involved and that is what they did! Adams rushed 22 times for 84 yards and a TD this week. Doesn’t have a great schedule ahead but worth a roster spot for sure!

Josh Reynolds, WR Rams: Had his breakout game in week 11 but if people slept on him because of the bye, pick him up!

Deeper leagues

Carlos Hyde/TJ Yeldon, RB Jags: If the Fournette owner made the mistake of not handcuffing him with Yeldon or Hyde, pick them up if you need a one week fill in for a start. Fournette has been suspended for one week for the incident that happened against Buffalo.

Adam Humphries, WR Bucs: We talked about Humphries on the show last week. The vacated targets by OJ Howard created opportunities for Humphries the WR playing in the slot. Had a good week last week catching 6 balls for 54 and a score.

Nyheim Hines/Jordan Wilkins, RB Colts: Marlon Mack banged up and left the game with a concussion. Hines and Wilkins could see an increase in work this next week against the Jags.

Seattle Defense: Plays SF two out of the next three weeks!

Deepest of leagues

Justin Jackson, RB Chargers: Because Eckler is probably owned, look for Jackson if you need a guy to move into that support role recently filled by Eckler. He ran for 57 yards on only 7 carries and has big play ability.

Gerald Everett, TE Rams: had a bye last week but has scored 3 tds in last two games played. Good fill in for Doyle owners who need upside at the TE position.

Week 13 Saints @ Cowboys preview

“The best way to gain more yards is advance the ball down the field from the line of scrimmage.”

-John Madden

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While everyone else is talking about having a case of the Monday’s, WATO crew is already thinking about week 13! We will be recording our week 13 show on Thursday due to Dad life and hockey practice! Have no fear all-stars because we are still here for you! Here is the write up for the Thursday game! As we move into Week 13, on the docket for Thursday Night Football is the Saints heading to Dallas. With a 52.5 over/under, the Saints look to continue their 10-game winning streak. 

The Saints have managed to win all 5 road games to date and now they head to Dallas to face an improved Defense. Drew Brees has multiple touchdown games in 12 of his last 18 games. Last week we saw Brees throw touchdown passes to everyone we’ve never heard of before and he forgot about Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.  The Atlanta defense was a mess this last week, and Brees had the chance to get other players not normally involved and that paid off. However, this week he faces a much better defense and I think we see him return to his safety blanket and call on familiar faces. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas have combined for 1,599 receiving yards and 12 receiving touchdowns. Kamara also has 11 rushing touchdowns to add to that total.  In a game where the Saints are facing a surging Dallas offense at home, it should be a much closer game where the usual fantasy assets will be needed.

The Saints are a high-powered offense and are averaging just over 37 points a game. Meanwhile, Dallas is averaging 21.  The Dallas pass attack has been elevated by the addition of Amari Cooper, but it will still be difficult to keep up with the Saints offense. I look for Dallas to try and play the possession game out of the gate in this and attempt to keep the Saints offense off the field. The main issue I see with this plan is that the Dallas offense has not been great at finishing drives in the red-zone. It will be difficult for the Boys to play the possession game if they are trading field goals with the Saints instead of touchdowns. I like the odds of this game hitting the projected over/under of 52.5 and I feel like there will be plenty of fantasy points to go around. Here are my plays:

Starts (start with confidence)

Saints:

Drew Brees: Top play every week, always in your lineup

Alvin Kamara: Wasn’t needed last week against a bad ATL defense. In line for bounce back this week.

Michael Thomas: Wasn’t needed last week against a bad ATL defense. In line for bounce back this week.

Mark Ingram: Getting nearly the same amount of work as Kamara and you can’t afford to sit him.

Cowboys:

Dak Prescott: Big game last week vs Wash, and he will have to chase points.

Zeke Elliot: Saints good against the run but he hasn’t scored under 22 the last three weeks.

Amari Cooper: Huge game last week and his usage looks to be solid, ride that wave!

Flyers (take a chance, might perform for you)

It’s week 13, you need wins and points! Don’t get cute and chase touchdowns that happened last week! Not many flyers here for that reason.

Saints:

Tre-Quan Smith: sat last week but if he is active you play him.

Cowboys:

None

Sits (let someone else start them)

Saints:
All backup wrs to Tre-Quan Smith, to risky and td dependent. Brandon Marshall also does not excite anyone unless Michael J. Fox shows up with a time machine and we go back to 2012.

Ben Watson: Saw only two targets last week and hasn’t been reliable.

Cowboys:

Michael Gallup, Cole Beasley: hardly any targets to go around and they haven’t been as involved.

Both Defenses are a sit for me this week.

Week 11 Waiver Wire Adds

Is your house on fire, Clark?

No, Aunt Bethany, those are the Christmas lights.

WATO moves you should make….

By: Matt Higgins

Tis the season All stars.  The Wife wants you to put up the Christmas tree and break your neck hanging Christmas lights, The kids want to financially break Dad by circling everything in the Black Friday shopper, and all Dad wants to do is limp into the fantasy playoffs and strip his coworkers, family, and friends of their pride.  Have no fear Dads,  WATO nation is here for both you and our female fans!

            Since the season is 70% over we are going to assume that you only have 30$ left in your fantasy budget and we will tell you how much of that budget to spend.

Rashaad Penny 15$ of your 30$ remaining

When Chris Carson got his chance with this offense he was a stud, when Mike Davis got his chance in this offense he was a stud, and last week Rashaad Penny got his chance and he too was a stud.  Half way through the season Seattle assumed the identity as one of the best run games in football.  Rashaad Penny was a first round pick.  I got to think he is the guy that they want to be a star.  It’s my guess that he will assume the lead of this committee from here on out. 

Josh Reynolds 12$ of your 30$ remaining

It’s going to take a leap of faith to go all in on Josh Reynolds with us.  If you were a Cooper Kupp owner it may not take as much.  Kupp has been a star and when Kupp was out Reynolds took that roll in its entirety and he was a star too.  If you lost kupp this may be the best chance you get to replace his production

Doug Martin 9$ of your 30$ remaining

Does he play on a great team?  Absolutely not.  Do the Raiders play ahead and commit to the run?  Absolutely not.  Is he a sexy pickup?  Too short and absolutely not.  However, this is a guy you can start.  Alex Collins, Frank Gore, Lamar Miller, Adrian Petersons, Marc Ingram are all people with similar upside, touches, and opportunity.  He has Arizona, Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Denver still on the schedule.  If you need running back he’s a descent pickup. 

Tyrell Williams 3$ of your 30$ budget

He plays almost every play in this offense, he’s the Chargers number 2 pass option, and is getting consistent targets.  I would feel better starting Tyrell Williams in the flex over other potential pickups like Zay Jones with Josh Allen, Donte Moncrief and every other Jags WR’s, or any wide receiver in Jets uniform.  

Streaming Defenses:

Cardinals, Colts, Giants