Eric Holzmann's Draft Day Dudes

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Greetings WATO Readers! We have an extra special last-minute Fantasy Football Draft Weekend article from our good friend Eric Holzmann from the Mann Up! Sports Show! Check out Eric’s Draft Day Dudes. It’s 1 part values, 1 part sleepers, 1 part breakouts, and 100% Fantasy Football fun!

2019 Draft Day Dudes by Eric Holzmann

 On the fence about some players?  Do you wait until the late rounds to draft a quarterback?  New to your league and wanna surprise everyone with your vast knowledge of fantasy football?  Well…  here are some candidates who might not be talked about much but who could turn out to have excellent fantasy seasons. 

 

 

Quarterbacks:

 

  1. Derek Carr (ADP: #174 overall) – The Raiders did a good job this offseason of adding quality playmakers around Carr, specifically Antonio Brown, who after having frostbitten feet and a helmet issue has returned to the Raiders training camp. The additions of Brown, Tyrell Williams, and rookies Hunter Renfrow and first round pick Josh Jacobs gives Carr the best set of skill position players he’s ever had. Add to that the Raiders defense being trash and Carr should have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball. I fully expect Carr to throw for 4000 yards and about 30 TD’s this season, and that is more than good enough for a late round pick.

 

  1. Jimmy Garoppolo (ADP: #166 overall)– Garoppolo had thrown for 5 TD’s and 3 INT’s before going down with the ACL injury and missing the season, but he is back this year with added weapons in the offense. RB Tevin Coleman and rookie WR Deebo Samuel should add some much-needed life to a 49ers offense that has stud TE George Kittle and little else. Assuming Garoppolo has no side effects from the knee, I think drafting him in the 10th or 11th round is excellent value.

 

Running Backs:

 

  1. Derrick Henry (ADP: #39 overall) – I know some of you might be saying “Didn’t he breakout last year?” Well… kinda. Over his last 4 games he averaged 146 ypg and ran for 7 TD’s for an average of 25.75 fantasy points per game, but before that he didn’t do much at all. That being said, Henry is expected to carry the load this year for a team that is going to run the ball a whole lot. His ADP right now is the end of the 3rd round that makes him the 20th best fantasy RB. I am here to tell you that’s ridiculous and he will be a top 10 fantasy RB by the end of this year.

 

  1. Aaron Jones (ADP: #33 overall) – It’s pretty amazing to me that Jones didn’t see a steady dose of carries for the Packers last year once he was healthy, because he is by far and away their best RB. He averaged 5.5 ypc in the 12 games he played, and as Aaron Rodgers ages he is going to need to rely on his RB’s more. He also improved greatly as a pass catcher, something that was considered a knock on his game. He is currently going in the 3rd round, which is good value, but it’s not crazy to think we could be drafting Jones in the late first next season.

 

Wide Receivers :

 

  1. Curtis Samuel (ADP: #95) – Everyone seems to love Samuel’s teammate D.J. Moore, as he is being drafted higher, but give me Samuel, who outperformed Moore last year. New coach Norv Turner has raved about Samuel in camp, calling him a superb route runner. Add to that the Panthers have the 7th easiest schedule for WR’s, and I only expect that to go up in Turner’s offense. He’s currently being picked in the 8th round.

 

  1. Mike Williams (ADP: #61) – After being picked with the 7th overall selection of the 2017 NFL Draft, Williams missed the bulk of his rookie year and was a bit of a question mark coming into last season. Well… question answered. Williams posted an excellent season, catching 43 passes for 664 yards and an impressive 10 TD’s. While Keenan Allen is still the guy to pick on the Chargers, Williams is poised to get more work with the departure of Tyrell Williams to Oakland. I think people are nuts letting him last until the late 5th round/early 6th round behind guys like Dede Westbrook, D.J. Moore, Kenny Golloday, and Tyler Lockett. I look for Williams to explode this season and be a top 15 fantasy WR by the end of the season.

 

Tight Ends:

 

  1. Chris Herndon (ADP: 202) – One of the bright spots coming out of last season for the Jets was the development of Herndon into a legitimate threat in the passing game. He is going to miss the first 4 games, but Herndon and Sam Darnold have developed an excellent rapport. He caught 56 passes for 502 yards last year and 4 TD’s, but that could jump even higher with the red zone attention LeVeon Bell will be attracting. Herndon is currently going very late in drafts, and in some cases, undrafted, but I think that has more to do with the suspension than production. If you can draft and stash him, you’ll be happy you did.

 

  1. O.J. Howard (ADP: 57) – The former first round pick had a very good season last year before injuries derailed it. In 11 games he caught 34 passes for 565 yards and 5 TD’s, and that was with shaky QB play. With Bruce Arians around I fully expect improvement from QB Jameis Winston and increased production from a healthy Howard. A talent like this could improve to become one of the top TE’s in the league. I see him making the Big 3 TE’s a Big 4 by the end of the year.

 

 

Last Minute Draft Advice

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Thank you... fantasy football draft, for letting me know that even in my fantasies, I am bad at sports.

-Jimmy Fallon

This weekend is one of the biggest draft weekends of the year! Are you ready for your draft? Have you put in the prep work? Do you have a plan? Do you know the storylines coming out of training camp this season? Have no fear if you don’t, because the WATO crew is here for YOU!

Early Rounds: Mitigate RISK!

For simplicity purposes, this article will be curtailing to redraft, half PPR leagues. First off, throw out those top 200 player lists you googled before you left for your draft. Go out and get yourself tiered position rankings that will allow you to see the best players available every round at each position. Now let’s talk about the first round. The first round can be tricky. This is the round that will set the table for the rest of your draft, and although your first-round pick won’t single handedly win you your league, it could very well lose it for you if it doesn’t pan out (ask our host about Lev Bell and Dovonte Freeman).  The key here is to mitigate risk! Why spend your first-round pick on a guy that has question marks? Let other people in your league take on that headache and move to take the more stable picks.  For example, does it pay for you to draft Zeke if you have a top 5 pick? My answer today at 4am on August 20th would be no, because there has been zero movement on that front. I would much rather take one of the top WRs or a Lev Bell at that spot and sleep like a baby after my draft. Yes, Zeke has RB1 upside, but at this point he also has the downside of completely messing up your fantasy season.

Personally, I think this year more than most, the running back position will thin out quick in most drafts.  In majority of my mock drafts I have been taking a RB with my first few picks, unless the scenario plays out for me to get a top WR like Adams, Hopkins, or Julio. The second and third rounds will still carry heavy draft capital and you should remain conservative with these picks. There has been so much news with Todd Gurley’s health this off-season, he is sure to be around later than he has been the past few years. His ADP currently sits in the middle of the 2nd round.  The upside is there, but do you think its worth the risk to use your second pick there when guys like Connor, Beckham, Juju, and Evans are in that same round?  This is another situation where I want nothing to do with Gurley if those other guys are on the board. Now, if Gurley falls then there is value to be had, but again don’t add risk to your roster when you don’t have to early.

I know my dislike for Dalvin Cook has been high this season, but it needs to be addressed that this has not changed. He has the talent to be a top end back, but I don’t feel strong about his potential to do so. He has not played a single snap in the preseason.  Two games ago he was suited up and expected to play, yet Zimmer held him out because of “turf conditions”.  Alexander Mattison has been running with the 1’s during both preseason games.  2 out of the 3 WATO members were at the last Vikings’ game in person and we both agreed that the line didn’t look very good, even with the new additions. My concern with Cook is that even if he is healthy, I don’t see the Vikings running him into the ground when they continue to wrap him in bubble wrap.  Mattison will be involved and the line will still have some of the issues they did last year. Long story longer, Dalvin is also going in the 2nd round. This is risk you do not need, and I would be looking to start my team with someone else.

So, what have we learned for our first couple rounds? Risk mitigation!

QB’s / TE’s

We have already put out shows on QB and that you should be waiting to draft this position late. This has not changed, and you can find great value late in a guy like Lamar Jackson going in the 11/12 rounds. Josh Allen also has that great rushing upside and he is currently going in the 14th round!

If you aren’t drafting a top 3/4 TE, then you are waiting until the later rounds to get one.  Also, do not be the team that drafts 2 streamer TE’s because this is only wasting a roster spot for you. Some great TE values are Vance Mcdonald (8th), David Njoku (11th), and both Mark Andrews and Jordan Reed (13th).

 Mid to late rounds: Chase upside!

The mid to late rounds are where fantasy championships can be won! These are where your sleepers, camp hype players, and guys in position battles emerge to push you to fantasy glory! These are the rounds where you should be taking risks and getting the guys you believe in!  Does it benefit you to carry a WR5/6 on your bench, or would your team look better with some upside RB’s or WR’s that could slot into a WR1/2 role with an injury?  I have been a giant Darwin Thompson believer since day 1. Damien Williams still owns the job, but Thompson has looked amazing in the preseason. Thompson’s ADP currently sits in the 13th round! The upside to be had with this pick is fantastic and that’s what you should look for to add to your team. A WR that also offers some great upside is Tyrell Williams! This guy is also going in the 13th round. With all the craziness going on with Antonio Brown, it would be smart of you to get Williams as he has the upside to carry the load if Brown is out! Chase the upside with these later round picks, and don’t be afraid to get “your guy”.

Stay in the game!

If your draft doesn’t go how you want it to, do not worry! Stay in the game and be active on the waiver wire and making trades! There will be numerous players that emerge throughout the year that will be fantasy difference makers in big weeks, just ask Damien Williams owners from last year! Good luck in all your upcoming drafts and don’t forget to hang out with the WATO crew all season!

Article by: Nick Busch

2019 Fantasy Tight End: Who to Draft and When

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Article by: Matt Higgins

A common 2018 fantasy draft debate was whether or not Travis Kelce should be taken ahead of Rob Gronkoski?  Draft Day concluded that no, Gronk was still the fantasy asset to own and went with an ADP of 20th overall compared to Kelce who went 24th and Ertz who went 32nd.  If you took Gronk at 20 you missed out on Mike Evans, Joe Mixon, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce.  Well, it wasn’t as bad as taking Bell first overall, but you do have to think long and hard about spending valuable draft capital on an early round tight end.  WATO Fantasy Football wanted to let you know what you are missing out on depending on what fantasy Tight End you take and when.

Tight end #1 (undisputed this season)

Travis Kelce ADP 20

Travis Kelce has been as consistent as they come over the last 3 seasons as a fantasy asset, finishing the last three seasons as fantasy TE #1, #2, and #1.  He’s playing with the QB1 in fantasy this season in an Andy Reid offense that he knows better than anyone, and he is the undisputed TE1. If you draft him, you are missing out on the Damien Williams and Melvin Gordon.

The consistency of Kelce is superior to both Williams ADP 19 and Gordon ADP 21.  Andy Reid is obviously upset that Williams isn’t at practice and Gordon has his heels dug in with his contract dispute.  Yes, please give us Travis Kelce’s 1336 yards and 10 TD stat line from last season.  It’s very close to Deandre Hopkins 1572 and 11 TD and he’s going with an ADP of #7.

Tight End #2

George Kittle ADP 36

In 2018 Chuck Helmke set the world record for having 97.5% of his body covered in tattoos.  He now holds the record for being the most tatted senior citizen in the world.  In the same year George Kittle set the all-time record for receiving yards by a tight end.  It should also be mentioned that Chuck holds a record for most skull tattoos and that George Kittle set his record with QB’s named Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard.  Kittle should improve from his 5 TDs playing with a competent QB.  We like his ability to challenge Kelce for that top spot more than Ertz as San Francisco should be an offense that runs through Garoppalo and George Kittle. If you draft him, you are missing out on Josh Jacobs ADP 35 and Marc Ingram ADP 37.

People can’t be serious with these ADPs.  Are they really going to take a guy who has never played an NFL snap on a bad team and a 30-year-old backup on a new team over a guy who set the world record for yards by a tight end?!  I would say that’s insane, but we live in a world where people count skull tattoos on senior citizens naked.  

Tight End #3

Zack Ertz ADP 40

If Kittle led the world in yards, then Ertz led the world in targets.  He saw a record of 156 targets last season on a good offense who now has their starting QB back in the fold.  It should also be mentioned that the Eagles are starting with new addition DeSean Jackson, a healthy Alshon Jeffrey, and even competition from a rookie TE in Dallas Goedert who the Eagles took in the 2nd round.  The new competition for targets could mean that a regression is in store for Ertz.

If you draft him, you are missing out on Stefon Diggs and Phillip Lindsay.  Diggs had a stat line of 102/1021/9 compared to Ertz 116/1163/8.  The production is very similar, but Diggs finished the season on fire and has far less competition than Ertz for targets this season.  Phillip Lyndsay has his own Royce Freeman Theo Riddick carry concerns so Ertz should probably go before Lyndsay.

Tight End #4

Evan Engram ADP 62

Last year Even Engram was considered a draft day value coming off a rookie campaign where he had 722 receiving yards and 64 receptions.  Last year he missed some time due to injury but bounced back by catching 320 yards in the last 4 games that OJB didn’t play because he quit on the team.  This offense has gone through Engram before and it will go through him again. With Golden Tate missing the first four games and the injuries to Cory Colmean and Sterling Shepard look for this offense to go through Engram and get his fantasy owners off to a hot start in 2019. If you draft him, you are missing out on Larmar Miller ADP 61 and Darrius Guice ADP 63.

Lamar Miller is currently a real value with D’onta Forman being sent down the road.  Yet again he gets to be a plodding backup on a great team.  However, Evan Engram should be drafted before anyone thinks about drafting the already injured Derris Guice on a horrible football team.

Tight End #4

OJ Howard ADP 59

OJ Howard is getting plenty of steam after finishing as TE 14 last season in which he missed 6 games.  It was the 2nd consecutive season in his young career that he’s been injured. However, on the days OJ is healthy enough to make it to the field he has been consistent and efficient.  Now he gets to play in a new Bruce Arians offense, and he will not have to fight Adam Humphries or DeSean Jackson for targets. It should also be mentioned that he is playing with Jameis Winston who is a below avg league QB and he has competition at the position in Cameron Brate who played through a torn labrum and still led the team in TD’s last year. If you draft him, you are missing out on Kenyon Drake ADP 58 and Tyler Boyd ADP 60.

Kenyon Drake is in serious danger of losing his starting spot to Karen Ballage as they are now listed as co-starters.  Still, this is too high for OJ Howard.  Surely Tyler Boyd is a better pick coming off a 1000 yard season and AJ Green already missing games this season.

Tight End #5

Hunter Henry ADP 66

Hunter Henry is another guy who is having his statistics extrapolated over 16 games when he’s never been able to play 16 games.  To put it in perspective Antonio Gates caught more TD’s in his NFL than Hunter Henry has caught passes.  Keenan Allen is option #1 and Mike Williams is a big guy in this offense that can catch both TD’s and the underneath passes.  If you draft him, you are missing out on Rashaad Penny ADP 65 and Baker Mayfield. 

The reports out of Seattle are that Chris Carson is the man to own in that offense.  Also, no one should take a chance on Baker Mayfield this early.  Hunter Henry seems like a reasonable pick, but keep in mind that there are guys like Alshon, Landry, and James White in this round that should be drafted before Henry.

Tight End #5

Eric Ebron ADP 77

Las year Ebron caught 13 TDs and he still gets to play with Andrew Luck.  He’s always had good athleticism and there were times last year when he was the tight end that you wanted to own.  Now he’s being drafted well after players that have never achieved this kind of success such as Henry and Howard.  The reason for this decline is there is no way a player should be able to get 13TD’s from 750 yards.  Also, Jack Doyle is back this year and he caught 80 balls in 2017 and many consider Doyle to be the starter over Ebron.  Also, it should be mentioned that Luck is currently not practicing and without him neither Ebron or Doyle are draft able. If you draft him, you are missing out on Latavius Murray ADP 76 or Dante Pettis ADP 78.

The upside of what Ebron could do in the end zone makes him a reasonable pick behind a timeshare back in Murray and a Dante Pettis who might be locked in as an outside WR.  However, players like Jordan Howard, Will Fuller and Allen Robinson offer similar upside and avoid some of the risks.

Tight End #6

Jared Cook ADP 82

Last year Jared Cook led the Raiders offense in receiving by putting up a line of 68/896/6 and now he gets to play with Drew Brees in the high powered Saints offense.  Last season was an enigma for Cook.  He’s been in the league for a decade and has been one of the easier people for teams to cut.  Brees has lost some are strength and Cooks is a posession WR.  Also, the Saints haven’t had a fantasy relevant TE since Jimmy Graham and they didn’t seem to value him either.  It would be surprising to see Jared Cook put up anything close to what he did last year. If you draft him, you are missing out on Allen Robison or Carson Wentz.

Allen Robinson possesses the talent and opportunity to be a game changer and Carson Wentz has more weapons than ever. Furthermore, Miles Sanders is going after Wentz and he has the rookie upside that could win a league.  Jared Cook is not the sexy pick that his owners will think that he is. 

Tight end #7

Vance McDonald ADP 86

Now we are getting to some real value.  Vance is an athletic freak who set career height in targets, receptions, and yards last season.  This is a Big Ben offense that has lost receptions from Antonio Brown, Leveon Bell, and the Outlaw Jesse James.  Look for Vance McDonald to pick up a lot of these vacated receptions. If you draft him, you are missing out on Christian Kirk ADP 85 and Austin Ekeler ADP 87

Christian Kirk and Austin Ekeler who cares?  Star Trek hasn’t been relevant for a long time and Austin Ekeler is a 3rd string RB if Melvin decides to provide for his family this season.

Tight end #8

David Njoku ADP 93

There is still more value to be had in the later rounds.  Njoku in his 3rd season easily has the upside of Henry or Howard playing in a high-powered offense with an elite NFL frame.  He caught 56 balls for 639 yards last season on 88 targets and contoured his upward trajectory. There are a lot of mouths to feed with Landry and OBJ and NJoku’s draft value is taking a hit because of it.  If you draft him, you are missing out on Marvin Jones APD 95 and Geronimo Allison ADP 97

If you need a TE at this spot you could do worse than Njoku. The people drafted around him are shots in the dark.  You aren’t missing out on anything here.

After these first 8 TE’s Trey Burton, Delanie Walker, Austin Hooper, and Greg Olsen are available for nothing.  If you aren’t able to get Kelce, Kittle, or Ertz waiting on one of these guys might be the course of action to take.  Tre plays on a great offense, Delanie has been super consistent, Austin just needs some end zone looks, and Greg Olsen has been exceptional when he plays.  Please don’t think that you need to reach for a Jared Cook, OJ Howard, or a Hunter Henry.  

 

Free Decisions...

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“In wine there is wisdom, in beer there is Freedom, in water there is bacteria.”
Benjamin Franklin

Happy Birthday America! We live in the land where freedom rings daily! However, this is also the same land where you have the freedom to make poor decisions, just ask Kareem Hunt. Don’t let the freedom of poor decision-making bite you! Help us help you by listening to the podcast and reading these articles, so you don’t make poor decisions at your draft!

We’ve hit on traditions, busts, values, and rookie wide receivers already, but now we are going to dive into more of the specifics for some fantasy situations. Currently, a big question lingering around the NFL surround the Chiefs and Tyrek Hill. Personally, I won’t be owning any shares of Hill regardless of the suspension, but that isn’t what this article is about. Will Mahomes and the Chiefs be able to roll out an elite offense without Hill? Who will step up to fill Hill’s shoes if he is suspended?

Let’s start by looking at last year and how the Chiefs fared with Hill on the field. The first big hit that jumps out to me is that Hill accounted for 84 of the 565 points the Chiefs put up during the regular season. His absence will leave a huge void not only for the offense, but for the return game as well. What makes this even more concerning is that there is no lock for anyone to fill Hill’s shoes while he is out. The only person close enough to Hill’s speed is in rookie wide receiver Mecole Hardman. Hardman is talented, but it typically takes rookie wide receivers time to adjust to the NFL.  Hardman could be great, but any adjustment period will make it difficult for Mahomes and the offense to be as productive as they were last year.

Now let’s look at targets! During the regular season Mahomes attempted 580 pass attempts. Hill accounted for 137 of those targets, bringing in 87 of them for 12 receiving touchdowns. For anyone that had to cheat off the smart kid in math class, that’s around 23.6% of targets that went Hill’s way, to go along with 24% of Mahomes’ touchdown passes.  Hoping for Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, and Mecole Hardman to be there to replace this production is wishful thinking at best. I’m not saying that Mahomes will be a bust, but when you look at the amount of production the team loses with Hill out, I don’t see him passing for 50 touchdowns this season.

Say Hill gets slapped with a 4-6 game suspension, does this move Kelce into the first-round conversation? I don’t have a problem with that, but it would have to be at the back end for sure. Mahomes currently has an ADP in the middle of the 3rd round.  That is some high draft capital for a quarterback in that spot if you play in a one quarterback league. I do think there will be an adjustment period for Hardman and I’m not depending on him to be a starter from day one. I do love the possible value that Robinson holds as he is going ridiculously late in drafts. Sammy Watkins sits with an ADP in the 6th round, but I look for that to skyrocket if Hill is suspended.  I’m not a Watkins believer so if his ADP moves any higher than the 5th, it’s a hard pass for me.

So, the final question is what to do with Hill. Where is it safe to draft this guy? His ADP sits in the middle of the 4th round and he is going before guys like Cooks, Kupp, Ridley, and Godwin. It boils down to the makeup of your team, and if you can take the hit of drafting Hill in the 4th, he could also be a league winner.  I traditionally play in a ten-team league and this is a little high for me. If a suspension does come out, I expect his ADP to fall so in the end there could be value to be had, but I’d rather use the draft spot for a guy I know will be playing.  If you really can’t use your freedom to decide if you should draft Hill, just give our host Matt Higgins a call and ask him if it paid off when he drafted Lev Bell first overall last season😊

Rookie Wide Receivers 2019

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My kid was supposed to have a double header today, but the host team canceled because “they have a lot of players out of town”.  What is this ‘everyone gets a trophy’ excuse? It wasn’t raining, it wasn’t snowing (that’s a possibility in June for Minnesota)…..yet the head coach used players being “out of town” to cancel this match that was already rained out the first time it was scheduled That’s like walking into a fantasy draft and picking Davante Parker in any round! DO BETTER PREP WORK!

So where are you at in your prep for the new year? If you have been in the same boat as most busy fantasy parents, you probably have a lot of catching up to do. Never fear, WATO is hear!

I’m going to hit on the most popular WRs that are being drafted and give you some June thoughts for now. Yeah, yeah, yeah, we have all heard the narrative that rookie WRs won’t produce but I think there are a few gems to be had this year!!

So, what rookie WRs am I looking at? It’s a short list but these are some guys you should look at late. Why do I say late? Well I will be honest, even though these rookies are super talented, the move to the NFL can still be difficult for first year players. With that said, these guys could still produce for you THIS year if you are willing to take a flier!

Mecole Hardman, Chiefs, ADP 9th round

A second round pick for the Chiefs in 2019.  With the Tyreek Hill situation up in the air, it looks like Hardman would be the best suited to fill the Hill role. If this is the case, I expect his ADP to sky rocket if Hill is suspended. If Hardman still sits in the 9th round when you are drafting, I love the upside that could be there. However, I wouldn’t look for Hardman any earlier because it is no lock that he is the guy to replace Hill.

N’Keal Harry, Patriots, ADP 8th round

No Gronk, no Hogan??? All these targets ready to be distributed to whoever steps into a role for the Pats!!! Not great news coming out of OTA’s for Harry, but there is still plenty of time for him to pick up the offense.  The 8th round seems a little rich for me, but I would take him over Hardman if he fell the the 9th. Pats offense isn’t easy for any WR to pick up, but Harry has the upside and the talent to make it happen.

D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks, ADP 9th round

I’m the most excited for Metcalf as I feel he has the biggest opportunity to shine. Wilson raved about the rookie in OTA’s, calling him a special player. Doug Baldwin is gone and its clear the Seahawks need another go-to WR! The 9th round is a great spot for him, but I expect that to rise if he shines in camp.

A.J Brown, Titans, ADP 16th round

Is there a WR that can possibly take away the greatness of Corey Davis? I say that sarcastically, because anyone should be able to pull that off. I like Brown’s talent, but I feel he landed in a terrible spot to showcase his talent. I’m not drafting him this year and I would let someone else take on that hurry up and wait mentality.

Deebo Samuel, 49ers, ADP 14th Round

Deebo Samuel in the 14th? Love it! Jimmy is back for the Niners and this guy is moving into a great spot! Garcon is gone and Samuel will move into the slot. I love the upside and if you are able to take a flier on this guy in the 14th, then do it!!!

Marquise Brown, Ravens, ADP 13th Round

I like the talent of Brown, but I think he also landed in a terrible offense.  The Ravens will run the ball and it will be difficult for any of their WRs to be fantasy relevant. Let someone else take him!!!

Parris Campbell, Colts, ADP 12th Round

Who doesn’t want a piece of the Colts offense with Luck at the helm? Campbell is a stud, and I don’t think the Colts did enough to improve their defense to stay in games. What does that mean? Well there will be plenty of points to be had!!!!! The 12th round is solid to take a shot on Campbell, so feel free!!!

Andy Isabella, Cardinals, ADP 14th Round

News came out this week that Isabella will be the WR3 on the team! This is great news for the rookie and with an ADP in the 14th round, there is some upside to be had! Still I would temper expectations as there hasn’t been a WR for the Cards that has produced in sometime other than Fitz. We love the upside with Kirk this season, but he wasn’t a relevant rookie last season so take note of that and don’t reach for Isabella!

A Fantasy Tradition....

He wakes up like it’s any other morning, only today brings a mixed bag of feelings for what is ahead. He’s worked hard the entire off-season, yet today his nerves are starting to get to him. After pacing back and forth in his room for several minutes, he goes downstairs to eat breakfast.  He sits down to dive into his meal, but then he realizes that he shouldn’t eat too much, as it might hamper his performance.  He decides to only drink coffee that it will hopefully help him make the right decisions when it’s time. He rushes out the door and heads to the big event, reviewing his notes one last time along the way.

As he arrives, he shakes hands with his teammates and shares a few laughs.  The laughs are short and fake as he knows what is about to come. He begins to perspire through his shirt and he starts to wish he had rented a cabin with his family for the weekend instead of coming, but here his is and the time has come. He finds a room to get ready in. He begins to hear the roar from the crowd outside the building. His leaguesmate comes in and hands him his uniform for the big day.  As he looks at the uniform he is overcome with emotions, and he doesn’t know what to say. 

He begins to get dressed and the roar of the people outside gets louder and louder.  The uniform is a little tighter than he is used to, but he is strangely comfortable with it. He is finally ready, and takes the long lonely walk down the hall, where he can now hear everyone yelling his name. He opens the door and the crowd erupts! Before his eyes he sees his fantasy league-mates sitting in lawn chairs, laughing at him, but they are not alone! Old women out for a walk stop to stare.  The neighbors come over to take pictures, and a car full of kids passing by point and laugh. For a moment time stops, and this seems like it will never end for him. Yet he knows why he is in his position and understands it’s a fantasy tradition he needs to fight through.

So, what is it that everyone is so excited to see? A grown man standing before a fantasy draft board taped to the house. This man is dressed like a Dallas Cowboy Cheerleader, as a consequence of finishing last in fantasy football the year before! This is the punishment he’d earned through believing bad draft hype, being lazy on the waiver wire, and alienated potential trade partners by overvaluing his own players

This is one of the many stories of our league’s loser of the Toilet Bowl, and all the glory that comes along with it! If you finish last in our league, the champ gets to pick out your outfit for the draft AND you’re in charge of putting the stickers up on the draft board for the whole league! There are no rules, but ODDS are, it will be very short, revealing, and probably for the opposite sex. 😊

If your league doesn’t have punishments for last place, I suggest you change that or find a new one! If they do, let us help you avoid losses and wear your own clothes at the draft! Follow along throughout the season as weekly podcasts are on the way!

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2019 BUST PICKS

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Now is the time we break out a few of our BUST picks! However, we need to cover just what we are classifying as a bust. The main goal of the draft is to get as much value packed into your roster as you can. Because of this, we will let the BUST classification apply to guys with high average draft position, who won’t return the value had you taken someone else in that same spot.  So, lets get it going, here are a few BUST picks for you!

Damien Williams, RB KC

Some of you read the name and have already jumped ship but hear me out! In our bold prediction article, I mentioned how Williams never had to compete for the job as there just wasn’t anyone left. I also believe that rookie Darwin Thompson will be the best pass catching back on the team. If Williams gets banged up in any way or just simply isn’t performing, it will open the door for Thompson or Hyde to showcase how they could be a better fit for the offense. Do I think Damien Williams will put up points if he can hang onto the job? Of course, but there’s more VALUE to be had if you go another direction.  Williams wasn’t anything special when he was in Miami but came on strong for KC after Hunt was let go.  You know who else finished the year on fire? Derrick Henry, and his current ADP sits two rounds after Williams’. Williams is currently being drafted at the beginning of the second round, going ahead of guys like Nick Chubb, Devonta Freeman, Dalvin Cook, and Marlon Mack.  I would much rather take my chances getting a stud WR and picking up any of those mentioned backs after and feel way better about my lineup. For me there is too much risk with Williams and I’d much rather let someone else take that headache on.

Sony Michel, RB NE

Now our host of the show will not agree with this take because he is high on Michel this year. I believe in the talent, but I don’t believe in the health. I think the Patriots also have some questions as to the status of Michel’s health moving forward. They went out and did what the Patriots never do, and that is move up to take RB Damien Harris in the 3rd round.  Harris is a talented back who out produced fellow Alabama back, Josh Jacobs who was taken in the first round by the Raiders.  Add in James White still being around along with Rex Burkhead and you have another Patriot backfield mess. I also dislike the hell out of his current ADP.  Damien Harris sits with an ADP in the 12th round, while Michel is going before James White in the 4th.  The value to be had here is very little and I would much rather take RBs going after Michel like David Montgomery, Mark Ingram, or James White and scoop up Harris in the 12th round! Minimize the risk and add that value!

Mike Williams, WR LAC

If you were listening to some of our first shows last season, you would have heard us all talk up Mike Williams.  We said back then that someone had to pick up the slack for Hunter Henry being out regarding red zone targets. We called it back then that we felt Williams was going to be the guy to do it, and he did catching 10 touchdowns. Well It’s a new season and Henry is healthy and wants his red zone targets back! Williams wasn’t a target and yardage monster last year and needed the touchdowns to help him finish where he did. I don’t see him having a repeat season and would much rather take someone else in the 5th round with higher upside.  Robby Anderson, Will Fuller, Christian Kirk are all WRs going in the 6th, 7th, and 8th rounds! Give me one of those guys later and let me use that 5th round pick for some fantasy goodness!

2019 Breakout Players to Target Late

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“I feel like I’m the best, but you’re not going to get me to say that.” – Jerry Rice

The late rounds of your fantasy draft are where good teams are made! Sure, there can be first and second round busts, but the odds are those picks typically perform for you. Unless you are like our buddy Scott who once picked Davante Parker in the 2nd round! If you can make the right picks late and catch you some lightning in a bottle, your team will be one to contend with come playoff time. Here are some mid to late round guys we expect to have a breakout fantasy season.

Rashaad Penny - Seahawks, ADP: 7th round

Yes, we know what you are thinking! Penny was a giant let down last year in his rookie season, but he is still a very talented back drafted in the first round.  The knock on him last season was that he was an out of shape rookie who struggled with pass protection. That ultimately lead to Chris Carson winning the job and holding onto it all season. However, the biggest tell sign here is what Seattle didn’t do and that was go out and get another RB.  In fact, Mike Davis is no longer on the team and as it sits right now, Chris Carson is banged up. The ultimate fantasy trickster, Mr. Pete Carroll reported that Carson had “a little work done” and he expects him to return to the field in a few weeks. With Carson recovering from surgery, Penny has to opportunity to be the number one back.  Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has already reported that Penny looks slimmer and in better shape during mini-camp. Seattle wants to run the ball more than they pass and they proved this last year. The loss of Doug Baldwin may have them leaning even more on the run game if that’s even possible.  Currently, Penny is being drafted around the 7th round with guys like Matt Breida, LeSean McCoy, and Dion Lewis.  Potentially you could be drafting a number 1 running back that late! Wait on him and let the points flow to your team!

Christian Kirk    - Cardinals, ADP: 8th round

In his rookie season, Kirk managed 43 receptions for 590 yards and 3 touchdowns.  The stat line isn’t anything to write home about, but if we are high on Kyler Murray (read the last article) then we must be high on Kirk. New head coach, Kliff Kingsbury has already spoke highly of Kirk during mini-camp. The outlook for Kirk in the new offense is tremendous with the added amount of plays the offense is projected to run compared to last year.  With an average draft position sitting in the 8th round, Kirk could add some great value to your roster!

DeMarcus Robinson   - Chiefs, ADP: 14th round or later

Why isn’t anyone talking about this guy? Tyrek Hill is potentially going to be suspended by the NFL. Chris Conley is gone via free agency. Robinson ends the offseason program as the club's second-most experienced receiver behind Sammy always hurt Watkins. Last season he hauled in 22 catches for 288 yards and four touchdowns.  Those numbers won’t get anyone excited, but sometimes opportunity and experience trump talent.  The hype is buzzing for rookie Mecole Hardman, who was drafted in the 2nd round by KC, but Hardman’s current ADP is sitting in the 7/8 rounds. I would much rather take a more established WR like Will Fuller or Jarvis Landry at that spot and pick up Robinson after the 14th! Just remember that majority of the time rookie WRs take some time to show up for fantasy owners. Look for Robinson late and thank me later!